U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Gaur
Tomorrow
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 221301 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 221259 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0659 am CST Tue Jan 22 2019 


Valid 221300z - 231200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorm potential will remain low across the United States 
today. 


... 
A positive-tilt upper-level trough will eject from the southern High 
Plains early today as a 100kt+ 500mb speed Max translates across 
northwest Texas into central Illinois by early Wednesday. This is expected to 
induce a weak surface low along a cold front over OK which will 
track northeast toward the Chicago area by the end of the period. 
While strong height falls will spread across the mid MS valley 
region, forecast soundings only exhibit minimal instability ahead of 
the trough as lapse rates should be on the order of 6 c/km through 
the convective layer. Model guidance does suggest elevated buoyancy 
may be just enough for weak convection between 1-6km but equilibrium 
level temperatures appear marginal for more than just a few 
lightning strikes with the deepest convection. Additional convection 
is expected farther southwest along the front toward the Texas coast by 
this evening. Thermodynamic profiles inland appear inadequate for 
anything more than a couple of very isolated thunderstorms tonight 
(less than 10 percent). 


.Guyer.. 01/22/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 201802 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 201801 
mez000-maz000-nhz000-vtz000-202200- 


Mesoscale discussion 0042 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1201 PM CST sun Jan 20 2019 


Areas affected...New England 


Concerning...winter mixed precipitation 


Valid 201801z - 202200z 


Summary...moderate to heavy snow is falling across much of the 
northeast this morning. This is expected to continue through the 
afternoon with areas currently seeing freezing rain/sleet and rain, 
eventually changing to snow. 


Discussion...a 988mb surface low is currently being analyzed near 
Providence, Rhode Island at 17z. This low will continue to deepen as it moves 
northeast back over the Atlantic Ocean later this afternoon. Cold 
air is working in rapidly west of this low pressure center which is 
changing mixed precipitation back to snow from west to east. Winds 
between 1 and 2 km have switched from south-southeasterly to west 
northwesterly in the last 2 hours on the kenx vwp indicating this 
surge of Arctic air is deepening. In addition, kenx WSR-88D 
correlation coefficient data shows the transition line moving 
rapidly east across Berkshire County in western Massachusetts. 
However, in these areas, precipitation will also be coming to an end 
soon due to dry air intrusion and limited deformation band 
precipitation. Further north into Vermont and New Hampshire and 
Maine, ongoing moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue with 
snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour across much of this 
area. The exception will be in eastern Maine where warm air aloft 
may build in later this afternoon and switch the snow to sleet or 
freezing rain for a period. Sleet seems like the more likely 
precipitation type considering the depth and magnitude of the cold 
air below this warm nose, but there have been upstream observations 
in the mid to upper teens reporting freezing rain, so freezing rain 
cannot be ruled out. 


Strengthening northwest winds will likely lead to blowing and 
drifting snow in much of the discussion area which will continue 
impacts through the afternoon and evening, even after precipitation 
comes to an end. These gusty winds may also exacerbate impacts in 
areas which saw significant ice accretion on trees and powerlines. 


.Bentley.. 01/20/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...car...gyx...box...btv...aly... 


Latitude...Lon 44247182 44847146 45397106 45827055 46147038 46677011 
47176963 47556925 47486830 47056770 46526766 45926758 
45696741 45406722 45006691 44746691 44436751 44176818 
43936877 43726921 43627007 43237045 42957055 42647059 
42347076 42177111 42047153 42077222 42267284 42637293 
43877212 44247182